At 17 I got the news I'd failed an exam, and it changed which university I went to. Without it I'd never have met my wife, made the friends I have, or built the career I did. Nearly everything since traces back through this one week.

CROSSROAD · A FORK IN THE PATH — RECORDED

The day I met my wife. Everything since is on this side of it.

RECORD · RECORDED

The day I married my wife.

RECORD · RECORDED

The day my son came into the world.

RECORD · RECORDED

From this week, more of my life has been spent with my wife than without.

ESTIMATE · MET + (MET - BIRTH)

The midpoint of my estimated span — as much behind me as ahead.

ESTIMATE · BIRTH + EXPECTANCY / 2

Around here my son starts turning to friends first, and I stop being the daily centre of their world.

ESTIMATE · BIRTH + 13Y — PEER ORIENTATION, EARLY ADOLESCENCE (12-14)

By this week, it is more likely than not that I have lost at least one of my parents.

PROBABILITY · GOMPERTZ-MAKEHAM, NZ PERIOD TABLE, INDEPENDENT — P >= 0.50

My son becomes an adult.

ESTIMATE · BIRTH + 18Y

My son likely moves out around now — 12% of the years spent living at home are already behind us.

ESTIMATE · BIRTH + 22Y — NZ/AU MEDIAN AGE LEAVING HOME

By this week, it is more likely than not that both my parents are gone.

PROBABILITY · GOMPERTZ-MAKEHAM, NZ PERIOD TABLE, INDEPENDENT — P >= 0.50

From this week, I have been married for more of my life than I was single.

ESTIMATE · MARRIED + (MARRIED - BIRTH)

By this week, there is a nine-in-ten chance both my parents are gone.

PROBABILITY · GOMPERTZ-MAKEHAM, NZ PERIOD TABLE, INDEPENDENT — P >= 0.90

I turn 68 — the age Dad is right now.

ESTIMATE · BIRTH + PARENT'S CURRENT AGE

Around here the healthy years typically run out; what comes after is usually lived with something wrong.

ESTIMATE · WHO HALE AT BIRTH, NZ ~70Y

The end of my estimated span. The grid stops here.

ESTIMATE · BIRTH + EXPECTANCY